Introduction

US – China “cool down” trade tensions with a historic 90-day tax reduction deal. The supply chain has an opportunity for rebalancing, but freight rates remain prone to fluctuations. This is a critical moment: those who take initiative will optimize costs and position. Join WR1 to explore the article and stay updated on developments and the right course of action.

New Landscape: US–China Announce Historic Tariff Reduction for 90 Days

On May 12, 2025, the United States and China officially issued a joint statement announcing a significant mutual reduction in import tariffs for an initial 90-day period. The agreement is the result of a series of constructive trade negotiations held in Geneva, involving top-level representatives from both sides. 

Key points of the agreement include:  

• The U.S. will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%; 

• China will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%; 

• The combined reduction of 115% is considered the most aggressive bilateral trade de-escalation since the 2018 trade war; 

• A new economic cooperation mechanism will be formed, co-led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “We’ve reached a 90-day pause with major tariff relief — a window to reset bilateral trade and logistics flows.” 

Before the US-China Tariff Relief: Carriers Slashed Sailings, Driving Rate Spikes 

In Q1 and early Q2 2025, the trans-Pacific shipping market faced intense pressure from softening demand, delayed orders, and policy uncertainty. Major ocean carriers responded with aggressive capacity reductions, leading to steep rate hikes. 

Market data shows that at least six weekly sailings between China and the U.S. were suspended, affecting ships with a total weekly capacity of 25,682 TEUs — typically carrying toys, sneakers, auto parts, and critical components for U.S. manufacturing. The suspended routes were operated by MSC, ZIM, and the Ocean Alliance (COSCO, Evergreen, CMA CGM, and OOCL). (Source: gCaptain) 

This was not merely cost-cutting — it was a deliberate strategy to protect spot rates and rebalance supply-demand. These blank sailings helped carriers avoid overcapacity and operational waste, thus keeping freight rates elevated in a weak market. 

Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence: “Something has to give. Either capacity will be slashed significantly — or spot rates will begin to nosedive.”

Short-Term Forecast: Spot Rates to Dip Slightly as Tariffs Ease 

The tariff relief is expected to boost market sentiment across trans-Pacific logistics. However, operational realities suggest that freight rates will not collapse immediately. Instead, a slight downward adjustment is anticipated in the short term. 

Why the decrease will be modest: 

• Carriers need time to reassign ships and rebuild service rotations; 

• Export–import volumes will recover gradually, not overnight; 

• Carriers are likely to launch short-term promotions in the coming 2–3 weeks to stimulate bookings and regain volume ahead of peak season.

Forecast: Spot rates may decrease slightly on certain lanes starting mid-May.

Mid– to Long-Term: Rates Expected to Climb Again in Peak June Season 

By mid-June, the market will enter the Q2 peak shipping season, driven by strong importer demand: 

• Preparations for back-to-school and holiday seasons in the U.S.; 

• Early stocking to hedge against autumn volatility and Thanksgiving shipping crunch; 

• Asian factories ramping up exports before Mid-Autumn Festival and EU summer holidays. 

With vessel schedules still partially blanked and cargo volumes rising, rate pressure will return. Most carriers are expected to end promotions, reintroduce surcharges, and optimize profits during this peak window. 

Forecast for June–July 2025: Spot rates likely to increase again, depending on the trade lane.  

Recommendations for Shippers and Forwarders

To stay ahead of market fluctuations and manage logistics costs effectively, WR1 recommends: 

• Secure bookings and rates in May to benefit from short-term carrier promotions; 

• Plan bookings early for June–July, avoiding last-minute price surges; 

• Monitor carrier schedules and surcharges closely to remain flexible and avoid surprises. 

Final Thoughts from WR1: In a Shifting Market, Proactive Players Win   

The U.S.–China tariff agreement provides a 90-day window of calm — a rare opportunity for businesses to reconnect and optimize logistics. But in a volatile ocean freight landscape, success belongs to those who prepare early, read the signals, and act fast. At WR1, we stand ready to support your business with smart, agile logistics solutions — helping you stay ahead, no matter how the market evolves.